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Prediction Market Rules
Program Overview
What is Prediction Market prop trading?
Prediction Market prop trading is a funded account style program where traders use an account balance provided through the program to take positions on event-based prediction markets. Instead of trading FX, CFDs, futures, or equities, traders buy “Yes” or “No” positions tied to whether a specific event will occur. Account progress, rule breaches, profit target status, and payout eligibility are calculated from account equity.
What is a prediction market?
A prediction market is a market tied to a future event or outcome. Each market asks a defined question, such as whether an event will happen by a certain date. Traders take positions based on whether they believe a specific outcome will occur. The market price moves as participants reassess the probability of that outcome.
What is an event, and how is it different from a market?
An event is the top-level prediction question or occurrence. An event may contain one market or multiple related markets. A market is the specific tradable outcome within that event.
For example, “Ecuador vs. Germany” may be one event, with separate markets for Germany, Draw, and Ecuador. Each market may have its own Buy Yes and Buy No prices, but for risk control purposes, all markets within the same event may be grouped together.
What products can I trade?
You may trade the prediction markets made available on the platform for this program. Pricing and event data are sourced through Polymarket. Available markets may change from time to time based on platform availability, event status, liquidity, compliance settings, operational settings, or other restrictions.
Are all prediction markets available?
No. Only the markets enabled for this program are available for trading. Available markets may change over time. Unless otherwise configured, there are no general market-category restrictions or minimum volume requirements. The Company may add, remove, disable, or restrict any market at any time.
Are there restrictions on market resolution dates?
Yes. This program is intended for markets that are expected to resolve within 60 days. Markets with longer resolution timelines may not be made available for trading, even if they are otherwise available through the underlying market source. The Company may remove, restrict, or disable markets based on resolution timing, market status, liquidity, compliance, operational, or risk considerations.
Is there leverage or margin?
No. Prediction Market accounts do not use margin or leverage. The cost of a position is based on the price of the contract and the number of shares purchased. You cannot use borrowed buying power to increase exposure.
Trading Mechanics
What is a “Yes” contract?
A “Yes” contract is a position that gains value if the market resolves to “Yes” on a particular event. If the market resolves to “Yes”, each winning “Yes” share is worth $1.00 at settlement. If the market resolves to “No”, the “Yes” shares expire worthless.
What is a “No” contract?
A “No” contract is a position that gains value if the market resolves to “No” on a particular event. If the market resolves “No”, each winning “No” share is worth $1.00 at settlement. If the market resolves to “Yes”, the “No” shares expire worthless.
What does Buy “Yes” or Buy “No” mean?
Buy “Yes” means you are taking the view that the event will happen or that the market will resolve “Yes”. Buy “No” means you are taking the view that the event will not happen or that the market will resolve to “No”. Both sides trade like positions, and their value can fluctuate before final resolution.
Can I short a prediction market?
No. Short selling is not available in this program. To express the opposite view, you may simply buy the other side of the proposition. For example, if there are three potential candidates for Mayor in an upcoming election; Anne, Betty, and Carlos and you believe that Betty will lose, you would buy a “No” on Betty, as opposed to a “Yes” on both Anne and Carlos. In a binary proposition, like the likelihood of a single event occurring, if you do not think the stated event will happen, you’d buy “No” rather than shorting “Yes”.
How are prices displayed?
Prediction market prices are generally displayed between 0 and 100. A price of 25 means the contract costs $0.25 per share. The price of 80 means the contract costs $0.80 per share. The closer a contract trades to 100, the more likely the market currently considers that outcome to occur. The closer it trades to 0, the less likely the market currently considers that outcome.
How is my number of shares calculated?
Your number of shares is based on the dollar amount of the order divided by the contract price. If the price is displayed in cents, the calculation is: dollar amount divided by price in cents, multiplied by 100. For example, buying $1,000 of Yes at 25 cents gives you 4,000 shares. That is calculated as $1,000 divided by 25, multiplied by 100.
How does a position gain or lose value before resolution?
Your open position is marked based on the current market price. If you own 4,000 “Yes” shares and the “Yes” price moves from 25 to 40, the position value increases from approximately $1,000 to approximately $1,600 before fees, spreads, and any execution differences. If the “Yes” price falls from 25 to 10, the same position value falls from approximately $1,000 to approximately $400.
What happens if I hold a position until resolution?
If you hold a position until the market resolves, the final value depends on the official market outcome. Winning shares settle at $1.00 each. Losing shares settle at $0.00. For example, if you hold 4,000 Yes shares and the market resolves Yes, the gross settlement value is $4,000. If the market resolves No, those Yes shares settle at $0.00.
Can I close a position before resolution?
Yes, you may close a position before final resolution by selling or closing all or some of the shares at the current market price. Your realized gain or loss will depend on your entry price, exit price, size, fees, and execution quality.
What is liquidity and why does it matter?
Liquidity refers to the availability of buyers and sellers at current prices. Thin liquidity can result in wider spreads, partial fills, worse execution, or difficulty closing a position at the price shown on screen. Traders should understand that a displayed market price does not guarantee that the full order can be executed at that exact price.
What is the permitted opening price range?
Opening orders are limited to the configured price range of .20 to .80. This means the platform may reject opening trades outside that range. This setting is intended to reduce extreme, low-probability or near-resolution trading and to keep traders focused on actively traded markets where price movement is more meaningful. The limit is ONLY applied to opening orders, positions may be closed at prices outside of this range.
Are there commissions?
Yes. A 1% commission is charged on the total notional value of each opening transaction. There is no commission charged to close a position.
Can I trade multiple markets at the same time?
Yes. There is no configured maximum number of concurrent markets. However, all account-level rules still apply, including Daily Drawdown, Max Drawdown, Max Profit Per Event, market eligibility, and any platform or risk restrictions. Markets tied to the same event are aggregated for Max Profit Per Event purposes.
Where do I track my account?
Account metrics, breach levels, profit target status, and payout eligibility are tracked through the trader dashboard. Because this product uses equity-based metrics, traders should monitor open position value and account equity closely.
Can the Company limit products, prices, order size, or trading access?
Yes. The Company may limit available markets, restrict order size, restrict trading during certain conditions, reject orders, disable markets, or make other risk and operational changes in response to liquidity, pricing, market status, compliance concerns, technology issues, or program risk.
Market Resolution and Risk Considerations
Who determines whether a market resolves “Yes” or “No”?
Markets resolve according to the rules and resolution process applicable to the underlying market source. The Company does not create the underlying event outcome. Account calculations follow the available pricing, settlement, and resolution data used by the platform, subject to the Company’s terms, corrections, risk controls, and compliance requirements.
What if a market is delayed, disputed, cancelled, or unavailable?
Prediction markets can involve event delays, disputed outcomes, halted markets, unavailable data, API interruptions, or other operational issues. If a market does not resolve normally or pricing becomes unavailable, the account may be adjusted, restricted, paused, or reviewed in accordance with the platform data, the applicable market outcome, and the Company’s terms and risk controls.
Can market prices experience volatility?
Yes. Prediction market prices can move sharply when new information becomes available, when liquidity changes, as the event approaches resolution, or when market participants rapidly reprice the probability of an outcome. A position that appears profitable can lose value quickly before it is closed or resolved.
Are prediction market prices the same as guaranteed probabilities?
No. Market prices can be read as approximate market-implied probabilities, but they are not guarantees. Prices also reflect liquidity, spreads, fees, market structure, trader behavior, and the risk of uncertainty around the final outcome.
Why did the market not settle immediately after the news came out?
Markets settle according to their stated resolution rules. Some outcomes may require confirmation from a specific source, and some markets may take additional time if the result is unclear or disputed.
Why did the price move if nothing official happened?
Prices can move as traders react to news, rumors, polls, data, odds, public statements, or changing expectations. The final result may not be known yet, but the market can reprice as expectations change.
Can I use non-public or inside information?
No. Traders may not use inside information, manipulate markets, attempt to exploit platform or API errors, or engage in activity that violates exchange, market, platform, regulatory, or program rules. Any such activity may result in trade cancellation, account breach, denial of Funded account issuance, forfeiture of gains, or termination from the program.
Evaluation Account Rules
What is the Profit Target?
The Evaluation phase has a 10% profit target. To pass the Evaluation, the account must reach the required 10% return while remaining compliant with all applicable rules. Funded accounts do not have a profit target.
Is there a Daily Drawdown rule?
Yes. This Prediction Market program has a 3% Daily Drawdown calculated from end-of-day equity. If account equity reaches or falls below the applicable Daily Drawdown threshold, the account is breached. The account is also subject to the Max Drawdown rule, which is calculated from equity. The day resets at 5PM ET every day.
What is the Max Drawdown?
The Max Drawdown is 6% and is calculated using a trailing equity high-water mark. The Max Drawdown perpetually trails past the starting balance as equity reaches new highs. If account equity reaches or falls below the Max Drawdown threshold, the account is breached.
How does the trailing equity high-water mark work?
The Max Drawdown begins 6% below the starting balance and trails upward as account equity reaches new highs. Because this product uses equity-based drawdown, open positions can move the high-water mark and can also cause a breach if the account later draws down from that higher equity level. For example, on a $100,000 account, the starting Max Drawdown level is $94,000. If account equity increases to $110,000, the drawdown threshold moves to $104,000. If equity later falls to that threshold, the account breaches.
What does equity-based mean for this product?
Equity means the current account value including open position value. Because prediction market positions can move before they are closed or resolved, unrealized gains and losses affect account equity. Rule triggers are based on equity, not just closed or resolved profit and loss.
What is the Max Profit Per Event rule?
This program does not use a trade or market consistency rule. Instead, it uses a Max Profit Per Event rule to limit the maximum potential profit a trader can have on any single event.
The Max Profit Per Event is 0.5% of the plan size. That equals $25 on a $5,000 account, $50 on a $10,000 account, $125 on a $25,000 account, $250 on a $50,000 account, and $500 on a $100,000 account.
The cap is based on the maximum amount the trader could profit if the position resolves favorably. It is not based on the amount paid to open the position or the current unrealized profit.
The cap applies at the event level. If an event contains multiple related markets, all positions tied to that event are aggregated for purposes of the Max Profit Per Event rule.
For example, on a $100,000 account, the event cap is $500. If a trader buys Yes at $0.20, the maximum potential profit is $0.80 per share, so the trader could buy up to 625 shares for that event. If the trader also buys Yes or No in other markets under that same event, those positions are summed together against the same $500 event-level cap.
What is the maximum time allowed in the Evaluation phase?
The Evaluation phase has a 30-day maximum time limit. If the account does not complete the Evaluation within the allowed time, the account will not pass. The optional Double Time add-on increases the Evaluation max time to 60 days.
Is there an inactivity rule?
Yes. The inactivity period is 30 days. If there is no trading activity for 30 consecutive days, the account is subject to breach under the inactivity rule. Open positions count towards the activity minimums.
What happens if I violate a hard breach rule?
A hard breach means the account has violated a terminating rule, such as Max Drawdown, inactivity, or another rule identified as a hard breach. In the Evaluation phase, a hard breach means the Evaluation is failed. In the Funded phase, a hard breach means the Funded account is closed and any gains may be forfeited unless otherwise stated in the applicable program terms.
Available Add-Ons
What add-ons are available?
The available add-ons are a Profit Split Upgrade and Double Time. The Profit Split Upgrade increases the funded profit split from 75% / 25% to 90% / 10%. Double Time costs 10% of the plan price and increases the Evaluation max time from 30 days to 60 days.
Can I add an add-on later?
Add-ons can only be selected at the time of purchase.
Funded Account Rules and Payout Eligibility
What are the rules for the Funded account?
The Funded account generally follows the same trading rules as the Evaluation account. The key difference is that the Funded account does not have a profit target. The account remains subject to Daily Drawdown, equity-based Max Drawdown, Max Profit Per Event, inactivity, market eligibility, trading restrictions, and payout eligibility rules.
What is the Profit Split?
Funded accounts are eligible for a 75% / 25% profit split. This means the trader receives 75% of eligible profits and the firm retains 25%. An optional add-on is available to increase the trader profit split to 90% / 10%.
When can I request a payout?
The initial payout delay is 7 days, and subsequent payout requests may be made every 7 days, provided all applicable payout conditions and program rules are satisfied.
Is there a minimum payout amount?
Yes. The minimum payout per period is 2% of the starting account balance. A payout request must satisfy this minimum and all other applicable payout rules. Payout requests must be for a full withdrawal of eligible profits.
What are the requirements to make a withdrawal from my Funded account?
To request a withdrawal from a Funded account, the account must be eligible for payout, remain compliant with all applicable rules, have no open positions and have eligible profits available for withdrawal. The minimum payout request is 2% of the starting account balance, and the trader must request a full withdrawal of eligible profits rather than a partial withdrawal.
For example, on a $100,000 Funded account, the minimum payout request is $2,000. If the account has less than $2,000 in eligible profits, no payout request may be submitted yet. If the account has $2,000 or more in eligible profits, the trader must request the full eligible amount available at that time.
Once a withdrawal is requested, Prediction Market Funded accounts will be disabled for trading until the withdrawal is approved. An approved withdrawal does not itself cause a daily loss limit or maximum drawdown breach. However, the account must continue to comply with all applicable drawdown and risk rules after the withdrawal is processed.
