Daily loss: 3% of yesterday’s closed balance, checked on equity, reset at 17:00 New York time.
The 6% floor follows your equity high and never stops at the starting balance.
Funded: 75% split, first payout after 7 days, then every 7 days.
The rules at a glance
Prediction Markets has one evaluation phase, then a funded account with the same rules and no target.
| Rule | Value |
|---|---|
| Profit target | 10%, within the evaluation time limit |
| Daily loss | 3% of the previous end-of-day closed balance |
| Max drawdown | 6%, trails the equity high-water mark, no lock |
| Max profit per event | 0.5% of plan size |
| Consistency | No day over 35% of profit, at payout |
| Inactivity | 30 days without activity |
| Profit split | 75%, 90% with the add-on |
| Payouts | After 7 days, then every 7 days |
| Payout size | Min 2% of the starting balance, max $5,000 per request |
There is no leverage. The Double Time add-on extends the evaluation time limit, and add-ons can only be chosen at purchase.
Daily loss in dollars
The daily limit is 3% of the balance you closed at the day before, and the day resets at 17:00 New York time. On a new $10,000 account, today’s floor is $9,700. Close the day at $10,400 and tomorrow’s floor is $10,088.
The check runs on equity, which includes the current value of open positions. A YES position that drops from 60¢ to 40¢ moves you toward the floor right away, even though the market has not resolved. That is the main difference from thinking in “wins and losses at settlement”.
The trailing equity floor
The max drawdown starts 6% below your starting balance: $9,400 on a $10,000 account. It then follows your highest equity, dollar for dollar, and it never stops at the starting balance.
Because it follows equity, open gains lift it too. Say an open position takes your equity $800 above your previous high. The floor rises by the same $800. If the market then turns and the open gain disappears, the floor stays where it was. You have given back room you never banked.
The practical answer is to decide in advance when you take a profit. Letting a large open gain ride to resolution raises the floor first and risks a sharp reversal second.
Rules that shape each position
- Max profit per event. The most you could win on one event, if everything went your way, is 0.5% of plan size: $50 on $10,000.
- Opening price band. Openings are only accepted inside a configured price band, which keeps you away from near-certain and long-shot prices. You may close at any price.
- Opening fee. A commission is charged on the notional of each opening trade. Closing is free.
- Inactivity. 30 days without activity ends the account; open positions count as activity.
Funded and payouts
On the funded account there is no target, and every other rule stays. Your first payout request opens after 7 days, then every 7 days. A request needs at least 2% of the starting balance in eligible profit, which is $200 on $10,000, and is capped at $5,000.
Before you request, close every open position and check the consistency rule. While a withdrawal is being reviewed, the funded account is disabled for trading until it is approved.
Quiz
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Prediction Markets checklist
Rules as of 17 Oct 2026. Tick each line before your next session.
| Rule | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|
| Profit target | 10% |
| Daily loss limit | 3% |
| Maximum loss | 6% · trailing |
| Consistency | 35% |
| First payout | after 7 days |
| Then every | 7 days |
| Profit split | 75% → 90% |
1. How do prediction markets work?
- A winning share settles at $1.00, a losing one at $0.00; the price in between is the market’s odds.
- An event can hold several markets, and the risk rules group them by event.
- No shorting and no leverage: to take the other view, you buy the other side.
2. What are the Prediction Markets challenge rules?
- Daily loss: 3% of yesterday’s closed balance, checked on equity, reset at 17:00 New York time.
- The 6% floor follows your equity high and never stops at the starting balance.
- Funded: 75% split, first payout after 7 days, then every 7 days.
3. What is the max profit per event rule?
- The cap is on potential profit if you are right, not on what you paid or your open gain.
- All markets inside one event share a single cap; splitting positions creates no extra room.
- Cheap contracts use the cap fastest: the lower the price, the more profit per share.
4. What do YES and NO prices mean in a prediction market?
- Price in cents = cost per share = the market’s rough odds.
- Shares = amount ÷ price. Profit if right = shares × ($1.00 − price).
- A market price is an estimate, not a guarantee; liquidity and fees shape it too.
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Questions
Is the Prediction Markets evaluation time-limited?
Yes. The evaluation has a maximum time to reach the target, and the Double Time add-on extends it. Add-ons can only be chosen at purchase.
Do open positions count toward the drawdown limits?
Yes. Every check runs on equity, so an open position that loses value moves you toward the daily and max floors before you close it.
Related lessons
Tools and rules
Rules shown here come from the help center and the live rulebook; your program terms apply.
