A winning share settles at $1.00, a losing one at $0.00; the price in between is the market’s odds.
An event can hold several markets, and the risk rules group them by event.
No shorting and no leverage: to take the other view, you buy the other side.
The question and the two sides
Every prediction market asks one defined question about the future, such as whether a central bank cuts rates at its next meeting. You can take one of two positions:
- Buy YES if you think it will happen. Each YES share is worth $1.00 if the market resolves YES and $0.00 if it resolves NO.
- Buy NO if you think it will not. Each NO share is worth $1.00 if the market resolves NO and $0.00 otherwise.
Between now and the result, both sides trade like any position. Their prices move as people reassess the chance of the outcome, so you can be right early and take a profit before anything is decided.
Events and markets
An event is the top-level question or occasion. A market is one tradable outcome inside it. A football match is one event that can hold three markets: home win, draw and away win. Each market has its own YES and NO prices.
For risk purposes, all markets in the same event are grouped together. That matters for the max profit per event rule: positions on the home win and on the draw count against one shared allowance, not two.
What you can and cannot do
- Prices. Pricing and event data come from Polymarket, and you trade in the MyFundedCapital Terminal.
- No shorting. To take the opposite view, buy the other side. If three candidates are running and you think one of them will lose, buy NO on that candidate rather than YES on the other two.
- No leverage. A position costs its price times the number of shares. You cannot borrow buying power to make it bigger.
- Enabled markets only. You trade the markets enabled for the program. They are chosen to resolve within a set window, and the list changes as events come and go.
How a position ends
You have two ways out. You can close all or part of a position at any time at the current price, or hold it until the market resolves.
Say you buy 100 YES shares at 40¢, so you pay $40. If the market resolves YES, the shares pay $100 and you make $60. If it resolves NO, they pay nothing and you lose $40. If the price rises to 55¢ before the result and you close, you receive $55 and keep a $15 gain, before the opening fee.
Markets resolve under the rules of the underlying market source, which can require confirmation from a specific source. That is why a market may not settle the minute the news breaks.
Fair play
You may not use inside or non-public information, try to manipulate a market, or exploit a pricing, platform or API error. If a price or settlement looks wrong, note the event, the market, the time and your position, and send it to support with a screenshot that hides your credentials.
Quiz
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Nice work. … of 4 lessons in Prediction Markets done.
MyFundedCapital School
Prediction Markets checklist
Rules as of 17 Oct 2026. Tick each line before your next session.
| Rule | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|
| Profit target | 10% |
| Daily loss limit | 3% |
| Maximum loss | 6% · trailing |
| Consistency | 35% |
| First payout | after 7 days |
| Then every | 7 days |
| Profit split | 75% → 90% |
1. How do prediction markets work?
- A winning share settles at $1.00, a losing one at $0.00; the price in between is the market’s odds.
- An event can hold several markets, and the risk rules group them by event.
- No shorting and no leverage: to take the other view, you buy the other side.
2. What are the Prediction Markets challenge rules?
- Daily loss: 3% of yesterday’s closed balance, checked on equity, reset at 17:00 New York time.
- The 6% floor follows your equity high and never stops at the starting balance.
- Funded: 75% split, first payout after 7 days, then every 7 days.
3. What is the max profit per event rule?
- The cap is on potential profit if you are right, not on what you paid or your open gain.
- All markets inside one event share a single cap; splitting positions creates no extra room.
- Cheap contracts use the cap fastest: the lower the price, the more profit per share.
4. What do YES and NO prices mean in a prediction market?
- Price in cents = cost per share = the market’s rough odds.
- Shares = amount ÷ price. Profit if right = shares × ($1.00 − price).
- A market price is an estimate, not a guarantee; liquidity and fees shape it too.
myfundedcapital.com/learn/
Questions
Do I need to read charts to trade prediction markets?
No. You decide whether a price is too high or too low for the real chance of the event. News, data and each market’s resolution rules matter more than chart patterns.
Who decides how a market resolves?
Markets resolve under the rules and process of the underlying market source. MyFundedCapital does not create the outcome; your account follows the settlement data the platform receives.
Related lessons
Tools and rules
Rules shown here come from the help center and the live rulebook; your program terms apply.
