Course · 4 lessons
Prediction Markets
Prediction Markets lets you buy YES or NO on real events, priced from Polymarket, with no leverage and no charts to read. This course explains how the contracts pay, what a price tells you, and the rules that shape every position.
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You will learn
- Read a YES or NO price as cost, payoff and implied odds
- Turn the daily loss, trailing floor and payout rules into dollars
- Size a position inside the max profit per event cap
Lessons
- 1Beginner3 minInteractiveHow do prediction markets work?A prediction market asks a yes-or-no question about a future event. You buy YES or NO shares; each winning share settles at $1.00 and each losing share at $0.00, and you can close before the result at the current price.
- 2Beginner3 minInteractiveWhat are the Prediction Markets challenge rules?Reach a 10% profit target without losing 3% in a day or touching the 6% max drawdown, which trails your equity high and never locks. Every event is also capped at a potential profit of 0.5% of your plan size.
- 3Intermediate3 minInteractiveWhat is the max profit per event rule?The most you could win on any one event, if every position on it resolved in your favour, may not exceed 0.5% of your plan size. Positions on all markets inside the same event count together.
- 4Essential3 minInteractiveWhat do YES and NO prices mean in a prediction market?A price of 62 means a share costs $0.62 and pays $1.00 if you are right, so the market puts the chance near 62%. A price is only worth taking if you have a good reason to think the real chance is clearly higher, after costs.
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Prediction Markets checklist
Rules as of 17 Oct 2026. Tick each line before your next session.
| Rule | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|
| Profit target | 10% |
| Daily loss limit | 3% |
| Maximum loss | 6% · trailing |
| Consistency | 35% |
| First payout | after 7 days |
| Then every | 7 days |
| Profit split | 75% → 90% |
1. How do prediction markets work?
- A winning share settles at $1.00, a losing one at $0.00; the price in between is the market’s odds.
- An event can hold several markets, and the risk rules group them by event.
- No shorting and no leverage: to take the other view, you buy the other side.
2. What are the Prediction Markets challenge rules?
- Daily loss: 3% of yesterday’s closed balance, checked on equity, reset at 17:00 New York time.
- The 6% floor follows your equity high and never stops at the starting balance.
- Funded: 75% split, first payout after 7 days, then every 7 days.
3. What is the max profit per event rule?
- The cap is on potential profit if you are right, not on what you paid or your open gain.
- All markets inside one event share a single cap; splitting positions creates no extra room.
- Cheap contracts use the cap fastest: the lower the price, the more profit per share.
4. What do YES and NO prices mean in a prediction market?
- Price in cents = cost per share = the market’s rough odds.
- Shares = amount ÷ price. Profit if right = shares × ($1.00 − price).
- A market price is an estimate, not a guarantee; liquidity and fees shape it too.
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The numbers
| Rule | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|
| Profit target | 10% |
| Daily loss limit | 3% |
| Maximum loss | 6% · trailing |
| Consistency | 35% |
| First payout | after 7 days |
| Then every | 7 days |
| Profit split | 75% → 90% |
Read from the live rulebook (17 Oct 2026). Your program terms apply.
Prediction Markets · From $274
Trade real events with your limits on screen
Prediction Markets accounts start from $274 one-time, with sizes from $5,000.
