Price in cents = cost per share = the market’s rough odds.
Shares = amount ÷ price. Profit if right = shares × ($1.00 − price).
A market price is an estimate, not a guarantee; liquidity and fees shape it too.
Price, cost and odds
Prices are shown from 0 to 100, which you read as cents per share. A price of 25 means a share costs $0.25; a price of 80 means $0.80. Because a winning share pays $1.00, the price is also the market’s rough estimate of the chance: the closer to 100, the more likely the market thinks the outcome is.
YES and NO on the same market sit on opposite sides. With YES at 62¢, NO trades near 38¢. Read a price as an estimate, not a fact. It also reflects liquidity, spreads, fees and how people behave around uncertain news.
The NO side works the same way from the other direction. Buy NO at 38¢ and you pay $0.38 per share, which pays $1.00 if the event does not happen. Your profit if right is 62¢ per share, and your loss if wrong is the 38¢ you paid.
Counting shares and payoff
Shares = amount ÷ price. Say you put $60 into YES at 62¢. You get 96 shares (rounded down). If the market resolves YES, they pay $96, a profit of $36 before the opening fee. If it resolves NO, you lose the $60.
| Price | $60 buys | Pays if right | Profit if right |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62¢ | 96 shares | $96 | $36 |
| 40¢ | 150 shares | $150 | $90 |
| 25¢ | 240 shares | $240 | $180 |
Cheaper contracts pay more when they win, because the market thinks they win less often. That is the trade-off, not a bargain.
Moves before the result
An open position is valued at the current price. If you hold 4,000 YES shares bought at 25¢ ($1,000) and the price rises to 40¢, the position is worth about $1,600. If it falls to 10¢, it is worth about $400. Prices move on news, polls, data and statements, and they can move fast as the result gets close.
Since the account rules run on equity, these moves count before anything resolves. Liquidity matters too: in a thin market, the price on screen may not be available for your full order, and a large order can fill partly or at a worse price.
When a price is worth taking
Compare the price with your own estimate. Buy YES at 62¢ when you believe the real chance is 70%, and each share is worth about 70¢ to you: an expected edge of roughly 8¢ before the fee. Believe it is 60% and the same trade has a negative edge, however likely the event looks.
- Write your estimate down before you look at the price, so the market does not anchor you.
- Subtract the opening fee from your edge; a small edge can disappear.
- Remember that openings are only accepted inside a configured price band. Near-certain and long-shot prices can be closed but not opened.
Keep a short record of each estimate next to the price you paid and the result. After a few dozen trades it shows whether your estimates beat the market or only felt confident.
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Prediction Markets checklist
Rules as of 17 Oct 2026. Tick each line before your next session.
| Rule | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|
| Profit target | 10% |
| Daily loss limit | 3% |
| Maximum loss | 6% · trailing |
| Consistency | 35% |
| First payout | after 7 days |
| Then every | 7 days |
| Profit split | 75% → 90% |
1. How do prediction markets work?
- A winning share settles at $1.00, a losing one at $0.00; the price in between is the market’s odds.
- An event can hold several markets, and the risk rules group them by event.
- No shorting and no leverage: to take the other view, you buy the other side.
2. What are the Prediction Markets challenge rules?
- Daily loss: 3% of yesterday’s closed balance, checked on equity, reset at 17:00 New York time.
- The 6% floor follows your equity high and never stops at the starting balance.
- Funded: 75% split, first payout after 7 days, then every 7 days.
3. What is the max profit per event rule?
- The cap is on potential profit if you are right, not on what you paid or your open gain.
- All markets inside one event share a single cap; splitting positions creates no extra room.
- Cheap contracts use the cap fastest: the lower the price, the more profit per share.
4. What do YES and NO prices mean in a prediction market?
- Price in cents = cost per share = the market’s rough odds.
- Shares = amount ÷ price. Profit if right = shares × ($1.00 − price).
- A market price is an estimate, not a guarantee; liquidity and fees shape it too.
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Questions
Why did the price move when nothing official happened?
Prices react to news, polls, data, statements and rumours as traders reassess the chance. The final result can still be unknown.
Is there a fee when I close a position?
No. The commission is charged on the notional of each opening trade only; closing is free.
Related lessons
Tools and rules
Rules shown here come from the help center and the live rulebook; your program terms apply.
